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politics briefing

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally Monday, March 7, 2016, in Madison, Miss.Brynn Anderson/The Associated Press

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POLITICS BRIEFING

By John Ibbitson (@JohnIbbitson)

Southern Ontario and Michigan share much in common, including the busiest Canada-U.S. border crossing and a closely integrated automotive sector. Today, in a relatively little-watched primary that is actually one of the most crucial of the season, Michigan voters will decide whether to advance Donald Trump's march to the Republican presidential nomination and possibly to the White House – which would be particularly disastrous for workers who live near Highway 401.

While many politicos are focusing on next week's Second Super Tuesday string of primaries, Michigan is equally crucial. The state is full of white, blue-collar workers who fill the rust belt region that also includes Indiana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, et al. In recent presidential elections, they have tended to vote Democrat. Michigan hasn't gone Republican since Reagan was president.

But Donald Trump has already shocked political analysts and Texas Senator Ted Cruz by winning over evangelical Christian voters in the Deep South. (He is also expected to do well in the Mississippi primary, Tuesday, though the situation is less clear in Idaho and Hawaii, which are holding votes as well.) Now the question is how heavily those white, blue-collar workers in the Midwest – many of them unemployed or underemployed and resentful of exported jobs and imported Hispanic labour – will come out for him. If Republican Michigan goes heavily Trump, then the New York entrepreneur can count on the same happening from Pennsylvania to Wisconsin. The nomination will be his.

And if Michigan voters really swing, then these Reagan Democrats, as they used to be called, could propel Mr. Trump to the White House, by handing him the Midwest, which would more than compensate for the flight of Hispanics to the Democrats in Florida and elsewhere.

On top of the many, many problems the rest of the planet would have with a President Trump, southern Ontario workers would find their jobs imperilled by his vow to rip up the North American Free Trade Agreement. The economic consequences of reverting to a pre-NAFTA – heck, pre-Auto Pact – high-tariff regime don't bear contemplating.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau certainly doesn't want to contemplate it. At a Huffington Post Town Hall, Monday, when asked about Mr. Trump, he replied: "Cape Breton is lovely, all times of the year," to general laughter. (If you don't get it, see this.)

"I'm not going to pick a fight with Donald Trump right now," he went on, but "I'm not going to support him either, obviously," later adding, "I have faith in Americans and in their approach to their politics, and it's not for me to weigh in." As if that isn't exactly what he had just done.

All polls, including this one released Monday, favour Mr. Trump in Michigan. But Canadians, and especially Southern Ontarians, can only hope he doesn't win by too much, or that turnout isn't too high. Otherwise…

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW THIS MORNING

By Chris Hannay (@channay)

> Today is International Women's Day. On Parliament Hill, the day will be marked with an event this afternoon featuring Status of Women Minister Patty Hajdu, Public Services and Procurement Minister Judy Foote, Finance Minister Bill Morneau and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

> In The Globe's opinion section today, the Prime Minister writes that feminism is not a word to be feared, and gender equality represents opportunity for Canada. "We must not fear equality. It is an essential part of any society that wants to be a leader in sustainable development, clean economic growth, social justice, peace and security."

> A senior United Nations official wants Canada to re-engage with the Nigerian government to offer support to find the 200 schoolgirls kidnapped by the terrorist group Boko Haram. "This particular [Nigerian] government has proven to be socially responsible and they've tried to do as much as they can do [to find the girls], so Canada can engage with this government to find out what logistic support or what intelligence support it can provide to locate the girls," said executive director of the UN Population Fund Babatunde Osotimehin.

> Mr. Trudeau and U.S. President Barack Obama are set to unveil a co-ordinated effort to protect the Arctic as part of the continental climate strategy the two will announce in Washington this week. We've got a roundup of everything you can expect this week at the state dinner and related events.

> The House of Commons will vote today on the Liberal changes to the military mission against the Islamic State.

> In other parliamentary news, the Conservatives will introduce a motion today for the government to support Bombardier by pushing for an extension of the Billy Bishop Airport in Toronto, which the governing Liberals have declined to do.

> The Alberta and Newfoundland and Labrador legislatures are back today, while Saskatchewan's will be dissolved to kick off the province's election.

> Why rookie MP Gérard Deltell is a rising star in the Conservative caucus and how he could play kingmaker in the leadership race.

> The Conservatives spent almost $42-million in the last election, according to Elections Canada filings.

> And the Privy Council Office is trying to get a $600,000 increase to its budget for maintaining the pm.gc.ca website, which would bring the total annual budget to $1.6-million.

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WHAT EVERYONE'S TALKING ABOUT

"Interestingly, people who wring their hands about the gender pay gap tend to be focused on the professional class, to which they belong. They seldom focus on the occupations in which most women actually work – teaching, nursing, hospitality and housekeeping, retail, clerical. Equal pay is not an issue for these women, because these fields remain almost entirely female. This is true even in enlightened Nordic countries such as Sweden, which are widely known for their gender equality." – Margaret Wente.

Nik Nanos (Globe and Mail): "Delivering on promises related to the environment and Syrian refugees is important but so is dealing with the issues Canadians want action on – such as health care" (for subscribers)

Yves Boisvert (Globe and Mail): "Do we really want to let down one of the few truly Canadian high-tech industrial companies, one that sells essentially to foreign markets? Do we want to do that now? If Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is true to his word that "what it takes to grow and prosper isn't just what's under our feet, it's what between our ears," then helping Bombardier should be at the top of his agenda."

Lawrence Martin (Globe and Mail): "When President Obama gives Prime Minister Trudeau the rare honour of a state dinner on Thursday, the tensions become old history. The two leaders are on the same ideological page and have a personal rapport. That's what it takes for Canada-U.S. relations to work. Forget all the academic theorizing. What history shows is that it's mainly happenstance. If the times serve up compatible leaders from compatible parties, all's well. If not, beware."

Chantal Hébert (Toronto Star): "[Some leading Conservatives] are coming to the conclusion that it is time to wave the white flag and make peace with the concept of carbon pricing."

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