Rory McIlroy's hangover, Dustin Johnson concern, LIV Golf wildcards - PGA Championship predictions

The PGA Championship gets underway at Quail Hollow on Thursday and Mirror US Sports' writers have weighed in on the biggest storylines heading into the second major of the year

The second major of the season has arrived as the world's best compete for PGA Championship glory and the Wanamaker Trophy at Quail Hollow.

The action begins in North Carolina on Thursday, with all eyes on Rory McIlroy after his enthralling Masters triumph a month ago. He will face stiff competition from the likes of world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, LIV Golf superstar Bryson DeChambeau, and a long list of contenders confident that this will be their week.

Can McIlroy go back-to-back after his moment of destiny at Augusta National? Will Scheffler send a resounding reminder of why he has been the world's best player for the past two years? Will DeChambeau bounce back from a disastrous final round at The Masters? Will Jordan Spieth join the career grand slam club?

The Mirror Sports US team has examined those topics and more ahead of Thursday's opening round. It promises to be a thrilling weekend in Charlotte.

Winner

Josh Lees: It will be that man again, Rory McIlroy. Even prior to his Masters win, I had McIlroy slated to win a third PGA Championship title. The Northern Irishman’s record at Quail Hollow is impressive, with four wins to his name, all four coming in the month of May.

I expect win No. 5 and major No. 6 for McIlroy with the shackles now off following his career-defining victory in Georgia.

Sam Frost: I toyed with the idea of picking an in-form Justin Thomas, but I believe Ludvig Aberg will break through and win his first of numerous major championships. The Swede has taken no time at all to establish himself as an elite player, and he has the game to tame Quail Hollow.

It feels like a matter of time before he takes down a big one, and I think it will be this week. A rough week at the Truist Championship doesn't scare me. Aberg missed the cut at the Valero Texas Open, and a week later at The Masters, only a couple of late mistakes cost him a genuine chance at the Green Jacket.

Daniel Blackham: I suppose the easy answer would be Rory McIlroy, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go close, but I think Scottie Scheffler has gone a bit too long without winning a major championship. He'll have a chip on his shoulder having seen all the narrative around McIlroy winning the Masters and becoming the best player in the world. Everyone seems to be waiting for the Northern Irishman to become world No.1, and Scheffler has all the inspiration he needs to keep his place at the top.

Ryan Gerbosi: Sometimes, it’s best not to overthink these things. Scottie Scheffler has been the best player and should be expected to win, even if his history at Quail Hollow is less than stellar. Sure, he was poor in the 2022 Presidents Cup at the course, earning just half a point in four matches, but he enters the PGA back in top form after dominating last week at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson. He should be well rested having skipped the Truist Championship. He’s the betting favorite for a reason and will finally pick up a major away from Augusta National.

Thomas Bristow: As much as I would love to see Rory McIlroy do it again, I have a sneaky suspicion it will be Scottie Scheffler. A bizarre start to the year with his hand injury has slowly gathered pace, culminating with a recent win at the Byron Nelson. He will have personal beef after last year's major was fueled by off-course drama and, it's somewhat hard to believe, his only major wins are two Masters events.

If he wants to write himself into golf folklore he needs another major win soon.

Going to struggle

Josh Lees: Dustin Johnson may have been handed a special invite to compete in Charlotte, but I do not expect him to make the most of it. Once regarded as the best player of his generation, Johnson's former greatness feels a world away. A dip in form on the LIV setup and a poor showing at Augusta are pointing towards another tough week for the 4Aces captain.

Sam Frost: Write Brooks Koepka off at your peril, but his form suggests he is not going to make a run at victory this week. He is 59th in the Data Golf rankings and his results on LIV this year are nothing to write home about. His only top-five finish came at a course in Singapore that he has won on before. He missed the cut at The Masters, too, so although we know the 35-year-old is capable of finding another gear at the majors, I think this week could pass him by.

I do not have high hopes for Jordan Spieth as he hopes to emulate McIlroy and join the career grand slam club, either. His form is promising, but I just don't think he can put together the four good rounds he needs in succession to win this week.

Daniel Blackham: I worry for Dustin Johnson this week, given his poor form on the LIV Golf circuit. Since the 2023 U.S. Open, he's only made two cuts at major championships, with his best finish at the 2024 Open Championship, but even that was a meagre T31. I wouldn't expect a great deal from him in Charlotte.

Ryan Gerbosi: Xander Schauffele grabbed his first of two majors in last year’s PGA Championship at Valhalla, but he’s still getting out of his early-season post-injury funk, his lone top 10 so far being a T8 at the Masters. Strength off the tee will be key on a long Quail Hollow, and Schauffele ranks 162nd in shots gained off the tee this year.

Thomas Bristow: LIV Golf players. This could come back to bite me in the a-- but I just have this gut feeling the LIV guys aren't quite up to it. Bryson DeChambeau represents their main threat at the moment but I've not seen enough lately from the likes of Johnson, Koepka and Cam Smith to convince me otherwise.

Wildcard

Josh Lees: David Puig may not be a common name among the casual golf fan, but I expect him to catch the eye of many this week. The Spaniard has announced himself as LIV Golf's hottest prospect in 2025, and I feel the former college star could make his name on the major stage at Quail Hollow.

I notoriously suits the big hitter, and with Puig one of the longest on the breakaway circuit, he fits the billing to take advantage of the Charlotte track. One to watch for the week, and one to watch for the future.

Sam Frost: LIV Golf's Dean Burmester enjoyed a solid week at Valhalla 12 months ago, finishing in a share of 12th place and I think this will be another fruitful week for the South African. Quail Hollow is a big hitters' ball park, and he ranks second in driving distance on LIV. The 35-year-old should love the setup.

Daniel Blackham: Does Viktor Hovland count for a wildcard? He's gone off the boil over the last 18 months or so, but has seemingly improved a bit this year, culminating in his win at the Valspar Championship. Hovland's got the ability, but arguably needs to regain the confidence he had in 2023 in order to win his first major championship.

Ryan Gerbosi: Forget about Shane Lowry’s final-round collapse at Augusta — the Irishman has played some excellent golf of late and could be in contention after a T2 finish at the Truist. His solid numbers off the tee and around the green should be assets this week.

Thomas Bristow: Possibly not a wildcard after his win at Truist but Sepp Straka. Form is everything in golf and he has the perfect launchpad entering Quail Hollow. Now ninth in the world and with two wins to his name this year, do not look past the Austrian.

Your Rory McIlroy hot take

Josh Lees: This time last month, backing McIlroy to win back-to-back majors would have been the "hot take", but having already slated him in to win again in Charlotte, it does not feel that hot. Instead, I will go with McIlroy, only making his move late on. I'm backing the Northern Irishman to coast his way through the first few rounds before making a burst late on on championship Sunday.

Sam Frost: McIlroy may well be in the hunt this weekend, and long-term, I feel his Masters victory will free him up to win at least a couple more majors. But I wonder about the impact of the enormous emotional release at Augusta and how it will affect him for the next few weeks.

He has looked a bit rusty since making his PGA Tour return after a week off without picking up the clubs. The Northern Irishman is playing with house money now, and he adores Quail Hollow, so he may well make me look foolish, but I have my doubts whether he will be at the top of his game given the events of the past month.

McIlroy showed at Philadelphia Cricket Club over the weekend that he doesn't need his best stuff to be competitive, finishing in a share of seventh place. I would be stunned if he finishes outside the top 10, but I have my doubts whether he will be right in the mix on the back nine on Sunday.

Daniel Blackham: Rory McIlroy will come close, not agonizingly close but close enough, and will go on to win the Open Championship later this year. It can't be overstated just how important the Masters was for his confidence. He's going to play with a cloak of invisibility guarding him against any sort of pressure, and that change in attitude will be shown in his play.

Ryan Gerbosi: McIlroy won't be a factor late on Sunday. Winning a major championship is hard. Winning two in a row is harder. Coming back from the emotional high of winning your first major in 10 years to complete a career Grand Slam? Good luck. McIlroy is fantastic at Quail Hollow and will be in the mix all weekend, but the physical and emotional toll of the last few weeks will catch up to him before he arrives at the Green Mile on Sunday.

Thomas Bristow: I realize I said Scheffler to win earlier...but if you're asking for a hot take then it's McIlroy to win all four majors this year. The shackles are off after his Masters win and there should be no stopping him. McIlroy without pressure is a scary thought.

How many LIV players finish in the top 10?

Josh Lees: It was two at the Masters, and I am going with one more this week. One of them will most certainly be Bryson DeChambeau, who has been a man in form in recent weeks, even with his heartbreak at the Masters. Joaquin Niemann is also due on the big stage, and having added another LIV win in Mexico City last month, Quail Hollow could be his chance.

It would, of course, be no surprise to see the likes of Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka up there, and also keep an eye on Puig too.

Sam Frost: Three is the number for me. Bryson DeChambeau may not have his absolute best stuff with his irons and wedges at the moment, but every other part of his game is outstanding. He will be in the hunt, and I fancy Jon Rahm to bounce back strongly after widespread criticism of his performances at the majors.

And this might finally be the time Joaquin Niemann fulfils his promise at the majors. He has been among the very best players on LIV, but he has no top-15s in 23 major starts. Burmester should also be in the mix for a top-10 finish.

Daniel Blackham: Four. Bryson DeChambeau, Joaquin Niemann, Tyrrell Hatton and Brooks Koepka. Don't be too shocked to see Phil Mickelson not too far off.

Ryan Gerbosi: Two at best. Bryson DeChambeau should be a lock for a high finish given his recent results. Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Tyrrell Hatton and Joaquin Niemann all could make a push, but I'd guess only one of them will.

Thomas Bristow: None or DeChambeau. I stand by my rogue take earlier.

Winning score

Josh Lees: The test at Quail Hollow will lead to 12-under-par being enough to take home the title this week. Whilst length always plays a part here, those at the top end of the driving distance stats can find it gettable, as shown by McIlroy last year. Taking into account slightly tougher major conditions, four rounds of three-under-par logically feels like the number to get the job done.

Sam Frost: A score of 17-under-par will get the job done this week. I don't expect the scoring to be quite as good as at Valhalla a year ago, but this is a course where PGA Tour players have a lot of familiarity, and the cream usually rises to the top at Quail Hollow.

Daniel Blackham: 15-under.

Ryan Gerbosi: 16-under has been gettable for a few in regular PGA Tour conditions at Quail Hollow, but that will be enough for a victory in the major set-up.

Thomas Bristow: Agree with Dan. I think 15-under clinches it.